Shared exposure
Several positions can win or lose on the same underlying event. A longer holdings list can still be one large directional bet.
THE PREDICTION MARKET TRADING WORKSTATION
Prediction markets.
One connected
book.
Your prediction-market positions don’t exist in isolation. Rook reveals what connects them—and how your whole portfolio settles across modelled outcomes.
Real Polymarket contracts Demo book Private demo
THE MARKETS YOU SEESNAPSHOT / 22 SEP 2026
THE EXPOSURE ROOK REVEALS
One underlying rate path.
A rate can touch 4.50% and fall back before year-end. These two contracts can settle differently.
Inspect the relationshipQuoted marks from the demo snapshot. Fictional holdings, real contracts.
FROM INDIVIDUAL MARKETS TO A CONNECTED PORTFOLIO
The whole book.
Finally in the same picture.
Trace the relationships between held contracts, then inspect the rules and assumptions behind each connection.
held contracts on one canvas what the map found, and the pairs that only look like hedges, are inside the workstation
WHAT IT DOES
Terminal
/Market aggregation
/Arbitrage detection
/Relationship mapping
/Settlement evidence
/Portfolio exposure
01 / THE TERMINAL
A trading workstation.
With your whole book in view.
Bring market prices, contract relationships, and portfolio exposure into the same workspace. Understand what a trade changes before you commit.
Pick a market on the left. Every panel answers for that contract.
WATCHLISTYESNO
Quotes aggregated across Polymarket, Kalshi and Predict.fun.
SELECTED MARKETRESOLVES 31 DEC 2026
Will the fed funds target range reach 4.50% or higher at any point in 2026?
ORDER BOOKYES
34¢9,60049,900K
33¢21,40040,300P
32¢18,90018,900P
SPREAD1¢
31¢27,30027,300P
30¢16,70044,000K
29¢41,20085,200P
One book, every venue. How it is built
EXECUTIONMARKET
SHARES50,000
- Avg fill
- 32.8¢
- Cost
- $16,408
- Max return
- $50,000
Buy YES $16,408
Filled across three venue levels.
BOOK PAYOUT, BEFORE AND AFTER THIS TRADE
OUTCOMEBEFORE AFTER
Touches 4.50%, ends below$498,000 → $548,000
Touches 4.50%, ends at or above$312,000 → $362,000
Never reaches 4.50%$455,000 → $455,000
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Cost | P&L | Linked |
|---|
POLYMARKET #690200 SETTLEMENT RULE
This market resolves YES if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate is 4.50% or higher at any point between 1 January 2026 and 31 December 2026, as published by the Federal Reserve.
02 / MARKET AGGREGATION
Bring the markets together.
Keep the differences visible.
The same question trades on more than one venue, at more than one price. Rook groups quotes by what the contracts actually mean and how they settle — not by how closely their titles match.
Matching markets are resolved across platforms and presented as a single instrument, not three near-duplicates in three tabs.
The best bid and the best ask can sit on different venues. Stacked into one ladder, the spread on this contract halves and the size inside two cents nearly doubles.
A shared headline is not a shared contract. Where the settlement conditions differ, Rook keeps the books apart and records the relationship between them instead of averaging two different questions together.
Rook Aggregated150.6kFed hikes 25 bp in October
Three venues stacked into one ladder. Every level keeps the venue it came from.
03 / CROSS-MARKET ARBITRAGE
Find opportunities
in how markets connect.
Inspect price differences across equivalent contracts and related outcomes. Follow the trade legs, settlement conditions, and costs behind each potential opportunity.
A price gap is only an opportunity if the contracts settle the way you think they do.
SCANNER4 FOUND 2 ACTIONABLE
04 / THE INTELLIGENCE UNDERNEATH
Behind every trade,
a connected portfolio.
The terminal, the aggregated books and the opportunity scanner all read from the same thing: a map of how every contract in your book settles against every other one.
A meeting decision, a year-end level, and an “any time this year” contract can all resolve off the same rate path. Their prices sit in three separate markets. Your exposure does not.
Rook brings the underlying outcomes into view.
Conditional hedges
A hedge that holds at year-end can fail on the path there. Rook names the outcomes where the offset stops working, and the rule that breaks it.
Portfolio consequence
A single trade moves more than one line in the book. See what it changes across every modelled outcome before you commit to it.
05 / THE DETAILS ARE THE DIFFERENCE
A hedge is only as good
as the fine print.
“Touches 4.00%” and “ends at 4.00%” sound like the same trade. But a rate can reach 4.00% and rise again. The path matters, and so does the contract.
Try it below: two positions, three ways a cutting cycle can run, and the settlement rules doing the work. Paths 01 and 03 end the year at the same rate and pay differently.
This is the comparison behind every hedge the map reports, and behind every opportunity the scanner accepts or throws out.
01 CHOOSE A RATE PATH
What if rates…
The same two positions, priced against three ways a cutting cycle can actually play out. The target rate only moves when the committee meets.
02 FOLLOW THE PAYOUT
4.75% → 4.00%
The cuts keep coming.
ILLUSTRATIVE POSITIONSETTLEMENT PAYOUT
YES Rate touches 4.00% during the year$1,000
NO Rate ends the year at 4.00%$0
Total payout 2 positions 1,000 shares each$1,000
The rate reaches 4.00% in September and is still there in December. One position pays, the other does not. Now try path 03.
Simplified binary contracts paying $1 per winning share. Payouts exclude cost and fees; they are not profit and not forecasts.
Inspect real contracts
EVIDENCE NOT ASSERTION
Every claim traces back to a venue rule.
Against every position Rook keeps the venue’s own rule text, the links back to it, and the hash of the exact version it read. Where a contract cannot be interpreted, it says so and carries the reason rather than quietly dropping it.
Look inside a contract
WHY WE ARE BUILDING ROOK
Markets trade one contract at a time.
You carry the whole book.
Prediction markets turn real-world questions into tradable contracts. Rook exists to make the relationships between those contracts legible — so a portfolio decision starts from a clear view of what is actually at stake.
THE AMBITION
A common language for prediction-market exposure.
06 / A FEW GOOD QUESTIONS
Clarity starts
right here.
What is Rook?
A trading workstation for prediction-market portfolios. It brings venue order books, contract relationships and portfolio exposure into one terminal, so a trade can be judged against the whole book rather than one line of it.
Who is it built for?
Traders and research teams running multiple prediction-market positions — especially where contracts share an underlying driver but differ in timing, threshold or settlement condition.
What can I try today?
The interactive demo carries a fictional portfolio over real Polymarket contracts on US rates. Explore exposure, scenarios, relationships, proposed trades and source evidence with private demo access.
Which parts of the terminal are product previews?
The terminal, the aggregated venue book and the opportunity scanner shown on this page are product previews built from real contracts. The demo covers the research side today: exposure, scenarios, computed relationships and settlement evidence.
How are contract relationships different from price correlation?
They are computed from how the contracts settle, not from how their prices move together. Two contracts can trade in lockstep for months and still pay differently on the one outcome that matters. The comparison, its assumptions, and the outcomes where a hedge stops holding are all laid out inside the workstation.
Why does settlement compatibility matter for aggregation and arbitrage?
Two contracts with the same headline can carry different observation windows, thresholds or resolution sources. Stacking their books averages two different questions, and an arbitrage across them can leave both legs worthless. Rook compares the rules before it groups quotes or reports an opportunity.
Is the data live? Can I place trades?
No. The demo runs on snapshot data over a fictional book. It is a research and simulation environment; it does not connect to your account and does not execute orders.
Does Rook predict which outcome will happen?
No. It shows what your positions pay under explicitly modelled outcomes. Counts of outcomes are counts, not probabilities. There are no fair values and no forecasts anywhere in the product.
07 / CONTACT
Talk to the people
building it.
Rook is early, and the two of us read everything that comes in. Whether you trade prediction markets, run a venue, or want to see the workstation against your own book — write to either of us directly.
08 / EARLY ACCESS
Your whole book.
First in line.
Join the waitlist for Rook. Get launch updates and a chance to explore the workstation with your own prediction-market portfolio.
Explore the demo while you wait